On my fourth day of predictions, we switch to the NL and cover the East.

Here’s my humble opinion:

1. Atlanta Braves
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Florida Marlins
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals

Please Phillie fans, keep back the insults about my mother until I explain myself. I’ll start by breaking down each team’s moves this winter:

The Braves had a productive offseason. Not too busy, just filled some holes. They set up a trade for Dan Uggla, then later solidified it with a 5 year contract. They have a strong rotation with Tim Hudson at the top followed by Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe. They also have a great lineup featuring Jason Heyward and Brian McCann. They won the wild card in 2010. I think this is the year when they can beat out the Phillies.

The Phillies stunned the baseball world when they signed Cliff Lee. Nobody had considered the Phillies in the mix, and now they had a superb rotation. People went as far as saying it was the best rotation in baseball, or even the best ever. There’s no doubting it’s amazing, but is it overrated? Here’s the breakdown.

1. Roy Halladay – 21 game winner. 2 no-hitters. Purely ace stuff. Nothing wrong here.
2. Cliff Lee – Great postseason pitcher. Can deliver in the clutch. But if he hadn’t have dominated the Yankees and the Rays, he would not have that contract. The Phillies should have taken a step back and looked at his regular season numbers. How many wins? 12. Come on, that’s only one more than Big Z, and we all know his season was shaky to say the least. Cody Ross and Edgar Renteria both got hot in the playoffs, but did they get ridiculous contracts?
3. Roy Oswalt – A solid 13 game winner. Good but not great.
4. Cole Hamels – 12 game winner. Solid lefty but known to get in slumps.

Here’s my version of the Phillies rotation: An amazing ace, 3 solid Ryan Dempster type pitchers, and a prototypical 5th starter in Joe Blanton. Yes, it’s a very good staff, but that’s assuming everyone stays perfectly healthy and fills their potential. I think the Braves underrated rotation and pop-filled lineup will prove too much for the Phils. Don’t count them out for the Wild Card, though.    

The Nationals upgraded their lineup with sluggers Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche, but are seriously lacking good starting pitching. Stephen Strasburg won’t be back until ’12 and Jason Marquis is injury-prone. Right now it looks like they’re ace is going to be… drum roll… Tom Gorzelanny? They also lost Adam Dunn through free agency. I think this will be a year they’d rather forget. 

The Mets didn’t make any splashes on the free agent pool, but have a lot of players returning from injuries this year, like Jason Bay. They have a good lineup but I think their young pitching staff needs some more experience until they can compete.

The Marlins biggest move was sending Dan Uggla to the Braves. In return they got infielder Omar Infante and pitcher Mike Dunn. They have a good lineup and one of the best shortstops in the MLB with Hanley Ramirez, but this year isn’t their year.

The NL East will be a competitive one, with a lot of pitching. And remember, this is just my opinion, I’ll probably be eating my words later.